Doing the math

As we’ve mentioned before, the “90% Myth” is a favorite in the Obama White House. This old yarn states that 90% of the guns seized by Mexican authorities are from the US. In light of the developing “gunwalker” scandal, this tall tale deserves a closer look.

The folks at STRATFOR published this analysis of the “90% Myth” back in February. In it, they looked at the numbers of guns seized in Mexico in 2008 and then broke those down into several categories. Of the 30,000 guns seized, the biggest category is “guns that were never submitted to the American authorities for tracing”; 22,800, or 76%. Of the 7,200 submitted for tracing, the ATF could only trace 4,000. Of that 4,000, only 3,480 guns could be traced to the US. In other words, only 11.6% of the guns seized in Mexico, not 90%, were verified to have come from the US. This agrees with what the US State Department already knows about how guns get into Mexico.

But here’s where things get interesting. Take a second look at that 3,480 number. Now think about what’s been reported about the number of guns that the ATF “walked” into Mexico. Various sources put that at around 2,000 guns over a 15 month period; or 1,600 in one year. (And this is only for “Operation Fast and Furious”; not the entire “Project Gunrunner” investigation.)

Now, for the sake of argument, let’s say that none of the guns seized by Mexico in 2008 were “walked” across the border by the ATF. And, let’s assume that the Mexicans would have confiscated another 30,000 during one “Fast and furious” year and that the 1,600 guns the ATF allowed across the border during that period were in addition to that number. That would bring the total number of guns seized to 31,600. The total number they would have submitted for ATF traces would become 8,800, the total number that could be traced would become 5,600, and the number traceable to the US becomes 5,080. So now, 16% of the seized guns could be said to have come from the US. However, 31% of those guns were smuggled into Mexico with the blessing of the US Government.

Now this is just a guess, but it looks like the largest non-Central American supplier of arms to the Mexican drug cartels is the government of Barrack Hussein Obama.

…one of the biggest fans of the “90% Myth”.

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